Not “Cavalier” About Climate Change: Leading the University of Virginia into a Carbon-Neutral Future

In Part 2 of this series, “Data is the New Green,” we explored how UVA’s digital twin energy model played a pivotal role in managing vast amounts of data from over 500 buildings. This model was key to evaluating carbon reduction scenarios across both existing and new infrastructure. By visualizing the financial impacts of various decarbonization strategies, including energy savings, operational costs, and capital expenditures, the model empowered UVA to make informed decisions that align with long-term sustainability goals. Additionally, the digital twin model can incorporate current weather patterns and predict future climate shifts, helping UVA assess the impact of climate change on its infrastructure and plan accordingly.

Beyond its role in visualizing decarbonization strategies, the digital twin model also played a critical part in evaluating the financial implications of these approaches. A decarbonization plan of this magnitude comes with significant financial considerations, and we worked closely with UVA to assess both short-term and long-term costs of transitioning away from fossil fuels. This included examining the financial viability of alternative energy sources, the potential savings from reduced energy consumption, fuel and electricity price forecasting, and the initial costs of upgrading infrastructure.

In addition to evaluating costs, the financial assessment also informed UVA’s exploration of electrifying its heating systems, a critical component of the decarbonization plan. As part of this effort, our team analyzed the capacity of on-site electrical distribution systems and Dominion Power’s regional grid to handle the increased demand. This shift could place added strain on the grid, particularly during peak winter usage. However, using the digital twin model, the STES demonstrated that strategic building upgrades would prevent winter electric peak demand from exceeding summer levels.

At the same time, our team explored the feasibility of installing geothermal systems to further reduce reliance on fossil fuels. We assessed both the technical and financial aspects of the project, considering factors such as local geology, land availability, and building proximity. Each scenario examined varying levels of geoexchange boreholes paired with heat pump chillers. While UVA cannot decarbonize their entire campus with geothermal alone due to land constraints, the STES has guided the university toward developing a new geoexchange thermal plant in the Fontaine Research Park District, unlocking significant future decarbonization potential.

While the exploration of geothermal systems revealed new decarbonization opportunities, successfully implementing these strategies required collaboration and consensus-building among multiple stakeholders. “Achieving campus-wide carbon neutrality isn’t just a technical challenge,” said Mike, “it also involves engaging university leadership, faculty, students, and the local community.” To facilitate this, our team played a key role in building consensus by organizing workshops, presentations, and collaborative sessions. This open dialogue allowed stakeholders to understand the long-term benefits of carbon neutrality and participate in shaping the plan. By using digital twin simulations, our team could visually demonstrate the benefits and trade-offs of various decarbonization strategies to stakeholders. These interactive models helped clarify complex concepts, making it easier to communicate the potential impacts of different energy scenarios and gain support for the proposed pathways.

As institutions like UVA pave their way to achieving carbon neutrality, the question for other universities and large organizations becomes: How prepared are you for the energy transition? At Ballinger, we believe that flexible, adaptive frameworks like the STES are key to ensuring long-term resilience in the face of climate change. The future is here—how will your institution rise to the challenge?